I don’t know if any numbers are available, but people are “renting” hd movies on XBOX Live. I just don’t think this is that far away from becoming normal. The Departed is 6.7GB at 720p, representing 36% of the 20GB HD that comes with the pro system, and it is basically a temporary file. So after I’ve waited for the download, once I’ve watched the movie I delete the file and repeat.

Downloading really occupies the sweet spot between having to leave your house and having to wait for Netflix. For Netflix customers, moving to downloading is a no-brainer, whether it is with them or someone else, as long as the DRM isn’t too much of a down side. (I think Netflix may be shooting themselves in the foot with streaming instead of downloading) For people who don’t want to wait at all, they will have to get in the car.

I think the only speed bump for Apple TV is the syncing. You should be able to download directly to it.