Feel free to laugh, but my parents taught me this when I was a kid and I still use it for choices between two competing next actions: Flip a coin. Not because you should let a coin run your life, but because your feelings when you see the result will tell you which you really want to do. For more complex situations, I’ve been known to break out the I Ching in the same spirit — not to receive marching orders, but to discern what my own inner marching orders really are. And I’m not a New Age nut, by the way. And I had to write in to thank you for making my life better, simpler, calmer, and more orderly. I read your great email tips in the Mac newsletter, thus found this site and then GTD — I’ve been doing it a month and feel better than I have in my life, truly. With a recent but long overdue diagnosis of ADD, I feel as if you threw me a lifeline just when I needed it. Thanks!

Unofficial new tagline: “43 Folders: I am not a New Age Nut.”

That’s a terrific trick and it totally works, Louise. The second you feel that twinge you realize you knew your answer all along. Ditto for I Ching and Oblique Strategies. I love an oracle that reminds me what I already know. :)

The coin equivalent with these strategies is when you find yourself tweaking the inputs to make the answer come out right…

I still like KT (Kepner-Tregoe IIRC) analysis for these sorts of things. List the factors you want to weigh the decision on. Assign an importance weighting to each factor For each choice, give a factor to each possible choice on how well the factor supports it. Cross multiply and the highest score is the winner. Has helped me with several decisions over the years.

Another vote for the good-ole coin toss.

For more complex tasks, consider the Magic 8-Ball.

Merlin - de Bono’s Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique when used properly. You’re right - it can tedious if misapplied - say to a decision about where to have lunch ;^)

But for big issues, projects, and other group discussion topics it really does lead to better group-think, reduced tension and emotionalism,and more productive interactions. In my company, a side benefit of having trained the entire company in the method is that it has become part of our lexicon. It’s not uncommon to hear someone say in conversation, “I’m just green-hatting here,” (implying creative brainstorming mode) or “This is red hat,” (denoting a purely emotional, visceral response to what was just said without the need to justify or support the impending statement).

We even do it in e-mail to mark off points being made using HTML-style tags as in:

What if we were to delay the release until we hit a certain threshold of bug reports fixed?

It’s pretty powerful stuff - especially if you’re part of an organization that includes smart, opinionated people. It cuts down on the noise level very effectively.

bayesian? or AI tools?

how to create this in php…

I’ve used the PMI method before with great results. I almost made a big mistake by not carefully weighing my decision. Even though the tallies for negative and positives were close, the best decision became apparent. I recommend it for all complex life changing decisions, like: “do I take the job or stay with the family? “

TOC Theory of Constraints. Start with “The Goal” http://www.directtextbook.com/prices/0884271781

Prepare to think

I wrote up about decision science tools at http://www.telepocalypse.net/archives/000224.html.

We use force field analysis all the time in XPLANE consulting engagements.

What I like about force fields is that it can help you ensure that you are solving the right problem in the first place.

A force field analysis clearly places the objective (And nothing else) front and center. I like to ask these high-level questions:

“What forces work in favor of achieving this goal?”

“What forces work against it?”

I find that often the answers can be unexpected — for example, we can uncover industry-wide trends or internal cultural issues that previously had not surfaced — and force us to take a step back and re-think the problem.

I think the force field is a fantastic tool to use with a group, during the earliest stages of the problem-solving process.

Come to think of it, there’s another tool I’ve used a lot recently, called forced ranking. It sounds simple — and it is — but like a lot of simple things it can be highly effective.

It works best with a reasonably small number of items. For example, if you want to know where to focus your energy as an executive, you might ask someone to “force-rank” their experience with your company:

“Take your experience with our sales team, consulting team, creative team and project manager, and rank them from one to four based on the quality of your customer experience.”

Following that up with questions like “Why did you rate that highest/lowest?” can often open up a rich dialogue you would not have otherwise. Sometimes they kind of “think out loud,” getting you an insight into their evaluation process.

This gets you away from stock answers like “Everything was great” (which are flattering but not necessarily useful), and moves the conversation towards things that can be more easily translated into action.

Put me up there with the people who think that, for any given decision, you come to an intuitive conclusion almost immediately. I’ve found that following through on these snap decisions has almost always been the correct course of action.

A technique that I use when asked for an opinion by my partner is to select whichever option comes first alphabetically. It is applied to any request for an opinion that I do not have a strong view on.

Like the coin method it works on the premise that if you really can’t make a choice it’s because you don’t see a huge difference. It works a treat and when she is fed up of avocado, absolut vodka and bruschetta we use the reverse alphabetical model!

Coin flips: A much faster way to figure out the decision you’ve already made! Er, faster than those more involved methods. And if you buy the theory that — most of the time — you’ll just fudge the results of those other methods to agree with what you’ve already decided.

All of this reminds me of Phillip J. Eby’s post on the ‘The Multiple Self’. I’ve just started reading two of the books others mention in the comments on that post — Strangers to Ourselves: Discovering the Adaptive Unconscious and Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions. I think the Amazon reviewers can give you a better summary of those books than I, particularly since I haven’t finished reading them yet.

Would be great to get a copy of this OmniOutliner template for the PMI stuff. Is there a chance to get it? Thanks !

Although not as succinct as the single topics above, I have found the methods useful in the book “Smart Choices : A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions” by Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0767908864/qid=1128426901/sr=8-3/ref=pdbbs3/102-9177548-7836968?v=glance&s=books&n=507846). They have a very systematic approach to framing and helping make decisions properly (you can apply this in GTD by having every Project answer the key points in the method). They summarize their eight-step the method with the acronym PrOACT:

Problem: clarify and decide on what’s the scope and scale of the real problem at issue Objectives: what are the objectives you want to attain with the decision Alternative: create a meaninful set of alternatives Consequences: what are the consequences of the each of the alternative decisions Tradeoffs: what tradeoffs between decision alternatives + three other related issues Uncertainty: figure out how uncertain outcomes, alternatives, and consequences are Risk Tolerance: your decisions will be different depending on whether you are risk-averse or risk-seeking; think investing in bonds vs. stocks vs. hedge funds. Linked Decisions: how does taking a particular decision affect other decisions one might have to make (outside the scope of this decision).

There is an extensive review on the Amazon page that gives more detail and discussion.

People do some or all of these things intuitively, but few people do them systematically, explicitly, and regularly.

It’s a very good framework for decision-making. The book is really cleanly, clearly written. They are either great writers or had great editors. There is no fluff there.

It’s by some of the same authors of “Getting To Yes”, a great introduction to negotiation. Also very clearly, sparely written. You will never forget the acronym BATNA afterwards…